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Appendix E: Housing trajectory and five year housing land supply calculation

Consultation runs from: 1 December 2025 9:00am - 30 January 2026 5:00pm

Housing trajectory

The housing trajectory for demonstrates how the minimum of 48,195 additional new homes between 2024 and 2045 will be achieved. 

All figures in the housing trajectory are net additional dwellings or dwelling equivalents. The housing trajectory includes: 

any dwellings that are self-contained and do not have their occupancy restricted to short term lets by a condition on the planning permission, but irrespective of whether their planning Use Class is C3 (dwellings), C2 (residential accommodation for students or older people), C4 (small House in Multiple Occupation) or sui generis (for a large House in Multiple Occupation), and 

any dwelling equivalents for student or older peoples bedspaces, calculated using the national ratios for student accommodation and other communal accommodation set out in the Housing Delivery Test rulebook (December 2024). 

Housing land supply calculation

The five year housing land supply calculation for for 2028-2033 has been calculated, on the basis of this being the five year supply period at adoption. The five year housing land supply has been calculated using the Sedgefield methodology with a 5% buffer, on the basis of this being the likely buffer required at that time taking account of anticipated Housing Delivery Test results.

Graph showing anticipated completions 2024-2045
Figure E1: Anticipated completions 2024-2045
Figure E2: Five year housing land supply
‘Sedgefield’ Methodology  2028-2033 
a. Requirement up to 31 March 2028 (based on annual requirements)  9,180 
b. Dwellings completed up to 31 March 2028  7,743 
c. Shortfall/surplus against annualised average requirement  1,437 
d. Five year supply requirement (based on annual requirements) plus shortfall/surplus  12,912 
e. Five Year Supply Requirement with 5% buffer  13,558 
f. Number of dwellings predicted to be completed in the five year period  14,427 
g. Five year supply (with 5%)  5.32 

 

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All comments must be received by 30 January 2026 at 5pm.